Business Checks

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — What’s it going to take for long-term Treasury yields to climb again?

Most experts believe that the rate on the 10-Year Treasury is likely to climb above 4% by the end of the year.

If the economy shows more signs of steady, albeit unspectacular, growth, it makes sense for bond investors to start focusing more on inflation concerns. That should mean a sell-off in long-term bonds and corresponding rise in their yields. (Bond prices and rates move in opposite directions.)

In addition, foreign investors appear to be growing increasingly wary of how much debt the U.S. has accumulated in order to pay for stimulus and various bailout programs. That should also, in theory, put upward pressure on rates. If they increase the percentage, then alot more business checks will be written to help our economy.

“Rates are going to drift higher over the course of the year for two reasons. The Treasury has massive financing needs because of the deficit and the economy is continuing to improve,” said David Joy, chief market strategist with RiverSource Investments, a money management firm based in Minneapolis.