

Key financial firms received a wide range of assistance during the past year. But scroll over their stocks and you’ll find few winners – and plenty of losers.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — More than 80% of top economists believe that the recession that started almost two years ago is finally over. But most don’t expect meaningful improvement in jobs, credit or housing for months to come.
That’s according to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). The group asked 43 top economists last month if they believe the battered U.S. economy has pulled out of the worst U.S. downturn since World War II. Those surveyed include economists from leading Wall Street firms and major corporations, as well as from highly respected universities and research firms.
Thirty-five respondents, or 81%, believe the recovery has begun. Only four, or 9%, believe the economy is still in a recession. The other four say they’re uncertain.
Economists in the survey forecast that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3% in the three months that ended in September, though the official reading of gross domestic product won’t be out for weeks.
And all of the economists surveyed expect the recovery to be slow and painful, leaving many people and businesses feeling the effects of the downturn for years to come.
The only organization that can officially declare the beginning or the end of a recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research. But that group doesn’t make any sort of declaration until months after the fact, in order to take into account final readings of various economic measures such as employment, income and industrial production. For example, the NBER didn’t declare that the recent recession had begun in December 2007 until a full year after the fact.
The NABE survey results echo comments made by many other prominent economists who have recently said they think the economy hit bottom at some point this summer.
Most notably, a recent statement from the Federal Reserve declared that economic readings “suggest economic activity has picked up following its severe downturn.”
Still, the NABE survey found that economists are forecasting lingering weakness in the labor and housing markets, and that the tight credit markets will continue to be a drag on economic growth into next year.
Unemployment, which was at a 26-year high of 9.8% in September, is forecast to hit 10% during the last three months of this year, and stay there through the first quarter of 2010. By the end of next year, it’s only expected to fall back down to 9.5%.
About 54% of those surveyed don’t expect the economy to regain the jobs it lost during the recession until 2012, while another 38% expect that to take even longer. Just three of the economists that the NABE spoke to expect these jobs to come back in 2010 or 2011.
And many don’t think the worst is over yet for housing either. About a third of economists believe that home prices won’t bottom out until early 2010 or later, while a quarter of them believe the low will come in the fourth quarter.
Half of those surveyed expect the financial markets to continue to be a drag on the economy until next year, while 30% of them said that trend could continue into 2011.
The NABE last surveyed economists in May, and they were far less optimistic at the time. Only 18% of them thought the economy would recover in the last quarter of 2009, while 7% saw a turnaround sometime in 2010.
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Compare Peachtree Quantum against…
QuickBooks Enterprise Solutions 9.0
Compared to QuickBooks Enterprise, Peachtree Quantum users experience:
Mid-market solutions
Compared to mid-market solutions, Peachtree Quantum users experience:
Excel or other manual solutions
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Peachtree Quantum Manufacturing Edition helps you address these challenges by providing core accounting functionality with advanced manufacturing features powered by MISys. Do more with less by using workflow capabilities that help you increase efficiency, while being cost effective, improve assembly processing, make inventory management more predictable, reduce delivery times and create greater customer satisfaction. Peachtree Quantum Manufacturing Edition offers tools that are right for growing job shops to large make-to-stock and make-to-order manufacturers.
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Distribution industry challenges
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Sage Accountants Network
The Accountants Network is for accountants who insist on staying current on trends in accounting and business management solutions. The program offers you flexible access to information, software and services that allow you to respond to your clients’ needs – without investing a great deal of time and money.
Members of the Accountants Network receive:
With widespread job cuts and a recession to deal with, it’s not easy to maintain a positive outlook at work these days. But being upbeat, despite the stress, could actually help you thrive during a downturn.
“Most people make the mistake of thinking that success leads to happiness. In fact, our brains work precisely the other way around,” says Shawn Achor, head of Aspirant, a consulting firm that advises clients like Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Credit Suisse (CS), and UBS (UBS) on how to keep morale and productivity up in these extraordinarily difficult times.
A positive approach to the daily grind, he adds, “gives rise to resilience, energy, and the ability to influence other people — all things that create success.” Having an great accounting team helps as well. Use a good quality accounting program like Peachtree Quantum by sage.
So if you want to come through this downturn with flying colors — and maybe even a promotion or a raise — you need to think positive.
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